The present and future of post production business and technology

On 9/27/10 I said “Apple, have the right tools to really rethink the interface…”

On 9/27/10 I said “Apple, have the right tools to really rethink the interface and leapfrog the competition with a whole new application.

Come Wednesday I think I’m going to be quite happy with my predictive track record.







8 responses to “On 9/27/10 I said “Apple, have the right tools to really rethink the interface…””

  1. Christian Wilby

    Hopefully the whole FCS suite will have been re-tooled…
    The interesting thing is, what the hell will Avid and Adobe do if they see that everybody quite likes what Apple have done? They use an old paradigm and Apple, it would seem, are “going to where the puck will be”. I think there are going to be a lot of very nervous people at Avid/Adobe.

  2. Marcus R. Moore

    I wouldn’t worry. It’s apple. There will be enough detractors (merited or not) regardless of what they do. Plus there are AVID and Adobe devotees, who either just like those products or don’t want to run Mac hardware.

    There are a lot of people freaking out already. But my question is, if FCPx was a step away from “Pro”, would guys like Mark Raudonis or Larry Jordan really be calling what they’ve seen “jaw-dropping” or “awesome”?

  3. Greg

    Marcus, I guess it depends on what you mean by “Pro”. At the Alpha Dogs pre-NAB panel, Mark Raudonis was specifically asked if, given what he’s seen, would Bunim-Murray be migrating to FCPX. He declined to answer (even though the answer is unlikely to be covered by the NDA he signed). As an analogy, there are certain products (the iPad, some cars) that I find “awesome” and “jaw-dropping”, but I also realize that they are not for me. The question really is Final Cut Pro has the largest market share and Apple can afford to lose x% of their customer base and still be highly profitable; solve for x.

  4. Christian Wilby

    “all of us are ing the gutter,
    but some of us are looking at the stars”

    Oscar Wilde

  5. Greg,

    I’m not sure that his answer isn’t covered by NDA. He and Larry Jordan have opted to say basically NOTHING on FCP since their initial statements. Mark’s only statements at the front were pretty much exactly what Larry had said, except replacing “jaw-dropping” for “awesome”. Outside of that, his only comments were around that this was a forward-thinking product, based on the Gretzky and Ford analogies. Basically saying, “this is not an incremental update”.

    But I wouldn’t put any more to this than when someone asked Larry on his blog if he would be able to run the new FCS on his iMac from last year. I can’t imagine the answer being “no”, yet Larry declined to answer based on the NDA.

    From the hemming and hawing he did about making remarks about ANY of the panel discussion, I’d honestly only take it to mean that he couldn’t say because if he says yes, then he’s talking about what market the product fulfills. Which he probably can’t.

    From my perspective, if someone likes an idea doesn’t see himself using it, Mark or Larry would probably have more used terms like, “Revolutionary” or “forward-thinking”. Cause they could be that, and yet not be for them. The terms they used indicate a personal vested interest.

    But this is all so much tea leaf reading- and I’m glad it doesn’t have to go on much longer.

    Philip, is there any kind of blog or streaming feed of this event that you know of?

  6. Mark has 100 seats of FCP. Even if the next release was a perfect fit, it would be a huge transition for them, probably updating hardware as well.

    But both he and Larry were clear their remarks were meant to be positive.

    There was to be an official live stream of the supermeet but it’s now listed as being a “podcast” (later download). I expect you’ll find some unauthorized streams on U-stream et al. Plus lots of people will be tweeting.

    I may tweet, but I’d rather focus on gathering information for a Wednesday afternoon detailed blog post. (Tuesday night I’ve got more parties to go to after Supermeet and you can’t expect me to miss them! Wednesday 10-1 I’m talking on how to grow your production and postproduction business, so it’ll be Wed PM before I get time to focus).

  7. I don’t blame you. You can’t really concentrate on what they’re saying if you’re trying to report live. As as been evidenced by them taking over the whole presentation, there’s obviously A LOT to cover: the ground up recoding and A/V foundation base, the functionality in each program [if there are still multiple applications…], and the GUI changes, whatever they may be.

    I wonder if they’ll have any testimonials from people like the Cohen Bros or Walter Murch, who’ve been using it for several months?

    Though I wouldn’t be able to jump over mid-stream on the project I’m on, I have jumped from my late 2008 15″ MBP to a brand new, top-of-the-line 17″ MBP, even investing in the SSD, which is wonderful. So I think I’m ready for the future…

  8. I’m really sort of sad I can’t be there. I’ve never been able to justify a trip to NAB, though I came close in 2007 with the FCS2 announcement. If I hadn’t just bought a new machine and been on a holiday, I might have been able to convince my wife, but now… forget it!