As expected my Monday morning on-the-record briefing with Apple’s Pro Apps team was very similar to Larry Jordan’s the day before. Larry covered the bulk of the content well on his blog post about it, so I don’t feel the need to go over the same data again.
I note Larry’s request for the retention of In and Out points, and that’s certainly desirable. I “banged the drum” (strongly) for selective copy/paste of attributes and was also told the same “the announced features aren’t the only ones we’ll release” response. FWIW, I think FCP X will use a selective copy approach, since you can already select (highlight) just one group of attributes. My interest in the Solar Odyssey project also had me putting in a pitch for sharing an Event to multiple editors working on their own Projects. All we can do is suggest priorities.
But what really stuck out were two data points mentioned in the briefing that Larry didn’t comment on.
There are now more Final Cut Pro X installs than Final Cut Pro 7 installs.
At first I heard it with the generic filter of “Final Cut Pro 7″ meaning all previous seats of Final Cut Pro and I wasn’t prepared to believe that, but it was clarified to be specifically Final Cut Pro 7 and I find that quite believable, as I suspect there was not a really strong take up of Final Cut Pro 7. Still, I think that’s a very healthy milestone as Final Cut Pro X is not yet one year old. (I also think Final Cut Pro X has outsold Final Cut Pro 1 at this time in its roll-out.)
That, however, wasn’t the most interesting data point. After all, it’s what’s been happening in the “pro” market that should show up just how much ground Apple have lost, right? Apparently not so much. Apple have long used the SCRI reports as a metric into this market.
Since 1984, SCRI has been publishing syndicated and customized market research reports covering broadcast and professional video for equipment manufacturers, investment firms, trade magazines & associations, investment firms and other industry analysts, including the US. Department of Commerce.
Most importantly: what is the methodology?
The data for the SCRI reports published reports is derived from extensive surveys of US broadcast and professional video users, using proprietary SCRI databases & source lists. For example, the total sample size for the Broadcast / Pro Video Product Report series of reports consists of 1,874 facilities across all vertical markets completing the detailed purchase history and purchase plans questionnaire. SCRI employs quantitative statistical sampling upon which market estimates and forecasts are based — unlike some other firms producing research reports based on limited sampling.
That seems to be the “pro” market I guess. And, not surprisingly, Apple’s market share in the “pro NLE buyers” market (noted above) has dropped. By 3%. From 55% to 52%.
Apple still have 52% of the “pro” market according to this researcher. That will certainly be challenging to those relying on anecdotal evidence from their immediate peer group.
First challenge is that they all purchased Final Cut Pro X “to test it out” and no-one’s using it. Well, Apple have already demolished the “no professional is using Final Cut Pro X” canard the week before NAB with the Final Cut Pro in Action stories. But could it be that only one copy was sold to each facility and that gives them 52% of the “pro” market. I don’t find that particularly credible, given that we know that Bunim Murray alone purchased at least 40 or 50 Media Composer seats in that time.
Logically, I have to take the research at face value (largely because I can’t afford to spend $1450 to buy the full report). Also contributing to the credibility is the detailed description of the methodology and validity of the results. If that was hidden I’d be more skeptical.
The 3% Final Cut Pro X lost in the last year largely went to (no surprise) Media Composer.
So, in the Pro market, Final Cut Pro X – in the last 12 months – has gained the dominant position in the Pro market. (And yes, the figures cover the last 12 months, I checked.)
(I’d also note that this disproportionally disfavors Premiere Pro, which has a wide installed user base, but not so much in broadcast and high end post facilities so far.)