In a rather interesting article on creative collaboration, Here Comes the Automation: How AI is Poised to Change Filmmaking, we get this quote:

“When a distinguished but elderly industry executive says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.” — Clarke’s  Law No. 1, slightly modified

It led me to think of how many of our creative tools in use every day were simply impossible a few years back. You don’t have to go back too far to be in a pre Internet era. Non-Linear Video Editing is less than 30 years old. A million dollar Da Vinci Resolve suite is now a free download from that Internet!

HD and 4K capable cameras on portable computers good enough to edit that with. (Speaking of which, check out LumaTouch for a look at what can be done on those iPhones and iPads carrying the camera.) Creative storytelling is more accessible than ever.

Our creative tools are in a constant state of evolution – a.k.a. change – and we’ve only just started realizing how “artificial intelligence” (i.e. machine learning based) tools are going to work their way into creative tools and workflows. This will likely fundamentally change the way we interact with creative tools, much the way non-linear editing of video on computers did 25 years ago.

Being open to change is essential, otherwise we risk being that “elderly industry executive” saying something was impossible, that others are doing every day!

I’ve certainly learnt to stop saying “that’s impossible” because it’s rarely true for very long.

On the night of the Supermeet 2011 Final Cut Pro X preview I was told that this was the “foundation for the next 10 years.” Well, as of last week, seven of the ten have elapsed. I do not, for one minute, think that Apple intended to convey a ten year limit to Final Cut Pro X’s ongoing development, but maybe it’s smart to plan obsolescence. To limit the time an app continues to be developed before its suitability for the task is re-evaluated.

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As someone who’s watched the development of machine learning, and who is in the business of providing tools for post production workflows that “take the boring out of post” you’d think I’d be full of ideas of how post can be enhanced by machine learning.

I’m not.

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As part of the regular year end activities The Digital Production BuZZ invited me, and a bunch of other people, to look forward to 2018 and predict what the major themes will be.

Larry Jordan got on his (self described) soap box this morning with a thoughtful post about the future of editing in an AI infested world. I think we should all be aware of what’s happening, and I’ve certainly been trying to do my part there, as recent posts attest, but I’m not sure I’m quite as concerned about editing jobs as Larry is. Assistants perhaps.

Larry shared his post with me, asking for feedback, and having written a fairly comprehensive response, I decided to share it here as well. While I mostly address the areas where AI/Machine Learning might be used, and why pervasive automated editing is probably way further in the future than Larry’s concern would indicate, none of that negates Larry’s excellent advice on managing your career.

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The report isn’t clear on exactly how Watson’s “AI” is being used but the article says that they are “now curating the biggest sights and sounds from matches to create “Cognitive Highlights,” which will be seen on Wimbledon’s digital channels.”

Apparently using Watson cognitive services to recognize a significant moment, and pull it together with cheers and social media comments to make a 2 minute video.

The AI platform will literally take key points from the tennis matches (like a player serving an ace at 100 mph), fans’ cheers and social media content to help create up to two-minute videos. The two-week tourney at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, complete with a Google Doodle to celebrate Wimbledon’s 140th anniversary, began Monday.

Adobe is heading into AI/Machine Learning full steam ahead. A private room NAB demo showed picture search and dialog search powered by IBM Watson, and now this collaboration with Stanford organizes takes, matches them to lines of dialog, recognizes voices, faces and emotions, camera framing, and more and then builds dialog-focused stories in any style desired.

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Design is much more than the way things look. It encompasses every aspect of every interaction with the device, object or software package you’re using. Josh Clark published a talk he gave on behalf of his design studio big medium, that is focused on design in the era of the algorithm, or Artificial Intelligence.

It’s a very long and deep article, well worth the read if you design anything at all. I found it very relevant as we are currently designing our most complex and powerful app. Read on for a list of the topics.

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A new Market Watch article spells out the results of a study that pulled data from an employment report from University of Oxford, processed into a visual chart by Visual Capitalist.

Not surprising, but retail service jobs are likely to do poorly, while high-touch occupations like nursing and teaching are likely to remain. Overall – and quite unfortunately for society – most of the job losses will be among relatively unskilled workers.

While there have been huge disruptions to employment in the past, there have been new jobs created, which is hard to foresee from this chart.

Consider the chart a career planning guide! I’m somewhat relieved that “Software Developers and Programmers” are relatively safe, although surprised as code is increasingly written by code! There is a surprising amount of creativity that goes into designing the software, that isn’t directly related to the code, so I guess that’s the safe part?

There isn’t a direct category that I could slot production and post production into, but since creativity in general will be valued, I think that creativity will continue to be valued. On the other hand, relatively routine tasks like organization and preparing for editing is likely to be vulnerable.

For an indication of when the jobs will disappear, consider this article about a paper: “When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts.” In this study, experts where asked their expectation as to when jobs would be eliminated. Bottom line, they could all be gone in 125 years.

I’ve written here before, and Terry Curren and I have discussed repeated on The Terence and Philip Show, that many jobs are likely to be replaced by the combination of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics/Automation. It’s good to see people thinking and writing about these things, as does Caitlin Fitzsimmons of the Sydney Morning Herald (Australia), in an article – How to prepare for the jobs of the future when you don’t know what they are – that features an interview with Pulitzer prize-winning author and New York Times columnist, Thomas Friedman, who writes about the age of acceleration in his new book, Thank You For Being Late.

The whole article (and likely the book, which I’m about to buy) are worth the read, but I loved this paragraph from Ms Fitzsimmons:

That’s because the only way to equip children for the future of work is to develop their imagination, creativity and emotional intelligence. If the world is changing, the best thing you can do is equip them for change. They need to be emotionally resilient with a habit of self-directed lifelong learning.